GSM mobile subscribers net adds were 10.3Mn in Oct-09 vs. 8.6MM in Sep-09 (excluding RCOM, Tata DoCoMo), up 20% M/M. The net add numbers saw broad-based increase with ~50% increase in net adds for Vodafone and Aircel (except BSNL that declined ~50%).
- Vodafone India net adds increased 51% to 3Mn, a sharp rise after decreasing for seven months in a row
- Bharti Airtel’s net adds in Oct were up 7% M/M at 2.7Mn (vs. 2.5Mn Sep-09) with the total subscriber base reaching 113+Mn.
- Aircel net adds at 2.0Mn increased 54%M/M from 1.3MM in Sep-09. The company has informed us that it has set 50 Million Customer Target by 2010.
- BSNL net adds decreased 54% M/M, as the company added 0.6Mn in Oct- 09 vs. 1.3Mn/1.4Mn in Sep-09/Aug-09.
- Idea Cellular net adds increased to 1.9Mn up 36% M/M; from 1.4MM in Sep-09
We expect RCOM to gain share from October with its new plan and net-adds for RCOM to move up.
Idea gains have come mainly from circles which were hit in Sep viz. AP, MP, Rajasthan. The same was true for Vodafone in Rajasthan, Bihar and MP and Bharti in Rajasthan, UP(E) and AP. Some of the circle-specific recovery in net adds seems to follow the tariff cuts by incumbents in those specific circles.
Will RCom's be able to beat the market competitors with its Simple Reliance 99 tariff plan ?