We forecast wireless revenues for GSM incumbents (Bharti/Idea) to grow 1-3%qoq aided by strong traffic growth though rev/min decline will be sharp at 3-4p. The encouraging traffic trend is also likely to limit EBITDA margin pressures which mean overall EBITDA to remain flat. Slight appreciation in Rupee will support performance at the PAT level.
Overall traffic should grow 6-12% QoQ resulting in slight improvement in MoU per sub. This is due to a combination of 1) base effect given seasonally weak 2Q, 2) sharp tariff cut would have helped incumbents gain back some mins from competition and (iii) some inherent elasticity.
We estimate rev/min for pure GSM operators to fall 3-4p. Decline for Idea could be more vs. Bharti given aggressive tariff cuts esp. in new circles. RCOM rev/min decline is also likely to be sharper at 5p due to tariff cuts announced at the beginning of the quarter.
