April-09 saw GSM adds fall m-o-m to 8.9m (10.8m in March ex- RCOM) primarily a result of BSNL’s adds coming off at 1m v/s 2.5m in Mar-09, although these had been distorted by the year-end effect (BSNL’s net adds typically spike up in March before falling off in the following months). Net adds for Bharti remained flat at 2.8m and given our FY10 estimates at 2.3m, leave room for upside. Aircel too remained flat at 1.1m
Idea Cellular’s net adds fell to 1.1m, as a result of 1) churn in Bihar, Delhi and Punjab and 2) slippage in Maharashtra, UP (W) and Kerala. The next leg up should come from Orissa (launched in April) with TN and WB slated in the coming few months. Our FY10 net adds estimates for Idea are currently at 1.6m
RCom has not yet announced, though we expect weakness compared to the previous three months as it has now started discontinuing the “trial offer” across various circles. The size of GSM Mobile subscriber base in India now stands at 297.73 mn [assuming net add of RCom to be the same as that in March-09]
